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  • Picking a winner for the Big Game | Thinking Aloud
    Most football fans wouldn t have expected such a performance coming from Butler who just several years earlier was working at a fast food restaurant and was undrafted in 2014 before joining the Patriots as a rookie free agent In a spectacular turn of events his first career interception earned him a championship ring Our research teams meet with hundreds of companies every year to find the unsung heroes within their industries those that may be overlooked by mainstream analysts or popular benchmark indexes We are dedicated to our actively managed approach which stems from a philosophy that holding high quality companies over a longer time horizon will lead to strong returns for our clients It s hard to foresee a time when the doom and gloom of the current market environment will dissipate and when we will again see a full range of possibilities for global stocks Until then we will continue to play to our strengths adding value for clients by selecting stocks we believe are reasonably priced and have the opportunity to become the next leader within their respective industries Ref 24533 010216 3 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture picking a winner for the big game Select Article URL Close Active management Economics Equities North America Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Taking some risk off the property table Active management Economics Equities North America Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding

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  • A showdown at the OPEC-less Corral? | Thinking Aloud
    production by 300 000 to 1 million barrels per day in an effort to regain some of the market share it lost when international sanctions were put in place in 2012 It is widely accepted that Iran s per barrel cost is below that of the Saudis and given it has parliamentary elections on February 26 the motivation to raise revenues by selling oil will be high The Saudis are feeling the budgetary pain from lower prices having recently released a 2016 budget that cut subsidies for water electricity and fuel By the end of the year they expect to have implemented a new 5 value added tax VAT all to stem the tide of reserve outflow totaling 150 billion in the last 18 months Interestingly it is in the more transparent Saudi nation that we see the true state of the oil markets They have shifted resource management strategy from peak supply to peak demand They invested heavily in solar technology foreseeing a day when they would supply solar energy to Europe in lieu of oil Non oil revenue rose 30 last year as efforts to diversify the economy were met with success In the midst of all this we refrain from joining in the largely useless game of predicting oil s low as it misses the point Whether the ultimate low is 15 or 25 the point is that the strain on the budgets in many of the petro states will not withstand these prices for long Perhaps Russia will cut production and be the white knight for Middle Eastern economies or Venezuela will face supply disruptions The point is that given the price has fallen so far and so fast we should increase the probability of a tail risk event to reduce the supply pressure The long term investor with a high risk tolerance may look back and regret waiting 1 Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication Ref 24533 260116 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture a showdown at the opec less corral Select Article URL Close Commodities Economics Geopolitics Global North America Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Creating value through effective stewardship Commodities Economics Geopolitics Global North America Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and

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  • Big Macs and Bitcoin / Thinking Aloud US | Thinking Aloud
    obviously be a strategy embarked upon with some care Finally the Chinese renminbi also looks undervalued on this measure so perhaps Chinese monetary authorities have already achieved what they wanted following the currency s devaluation The current doom fest around all things Chinese has contributed to this trend But the best performing currency of last year is one that you might have problems persuading the assistant in McDonald s to accept Bitcoin which is up 40 versus the dollar Investors might be right to be slightly skeptical of this virtual currency and its strong performance may only reflect a bounce back from a disastrous year in 2014 But it may also reflect the fact that it is not a tool of any central government s monetary policy and hence may be navigating waters away from these particular storms It is also worth noting that one of the other facets of currencies is that they can and do overshoot fair value Waiting for the mean reversion that this analysis predicts could be very testing on your patience not to mention your wallet But it is nevertheless a timely reminder in these times of unconventional monetary policy and in a time of significant currency consensus to at least be aware of what you re buying Ref 24533 280116 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Add to Flipboard Magazine Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture big macs and bitcoin Select Article URL Close Currencies Economics Free trade Global North America Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Creating value through effective stewardship Currencies Economics Free trade Global North America Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by

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  • Bear necessities | Thinking Aloud
    issues during the 2007 08 global financial crisis to the energy sector s present problems In the former the global banking sector was massively exposed through its corporate and residential property lending much of it cross border as well as holdings of sub prime debt in its investment arms and in some cases equity stakes in real estate companies While the energy sector s difficulties may have implications for U S banks with sector and regional exposures these are of a different order of magnitude to the global financial crisis particularly given capital markets role in the financing of the U S energy sector Furthermore the boost to real incomes from falling energy prices should provide the financial sector with opportunities in other areas And while country level distress is a potentially serious issue for the most vulnerable economies such as Venezuela a really large bust would most likely require oil prices to fall further and stay exceptionally low for a far longer period than seems likely given supply demand fundamentals Markets seem to be focusing on the risks not the rule Even if worries about an event similar to the global financial crisis seem overdone markets may be responding to a worry that low oil prices reflect an as yet unmeasured slowing of global growth that is far larger than it appears from recent macro data Falling oil prices have not historically played such a role in calling global crises particularly when the fall has been substantially supply driven but the danger may be that against the current backdrop of increased uncertainties over oil prices themselves China s slowdown and the path of U S policy herding behavior takes over and the drop in oil prices and equity markets becomes a self fulfilling prophecy What we really need from here is stabilization We do not believe that the macro fundamentals are as bad as recent market moves suggest If markets regain some faith in these fundamentals and in the oil price rule even if it is a weaker variant in the days ahead the current situation could be another hiccup like we experienced in August 2015 The longer it takes to achieve stabilization the greater the self fulfilling prophecy risks Ref 24533 250116 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture bear necessities Select Article URL Close Central banking Commodities Economics Global Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Creating value through effective stewardship Central banking Commodities Economics Global Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies

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  • A conscious re-coupling of monetary and fiscal policy? | Thinking Aloud
    them for fiscal irresponsibility via higher borrowing costs outweighed the potential growth benefits Furthermore there is a labeling problem associated with fiscal policy For one thing the term is too all encompassing furthermore too often fiscal is associated with welfare and this is simply anathema to the political right For a time this renewed fiscal responsibility seemed like a prudent approach Yet with interest rates still at the zero lower bound or even lower more than five years after the crisis began the question is again increasingly being asked if monetary policy is not working or not working fast enough isn t it time for fiscal authorities to get more heavily involved An eternal bond Of course no central bank is ever truly independent After all if the central bank is not answerable to the elected government then how can the people be sure that the central bank is acting in their economic interests Perhaps a more pertinent question is as an extreme example do we think that governments if they were still in charge of both fiscal and monetary decisions would have chosen to engage in some of these extreme monetary experiments if they knew they would be held responsible for their actions in five or ten years time Central bank independence was the answer to the sustained political interference high inflation problem of the 1970s and 1980s And this excessive reliance on monetary policy to do the heavy lifting seems to be an inevitability of the post crisis period But is it fit for the low demand low inflation environment that has now been with us for seven years and counting While we certainly don t foresee or advocate monetary and fiscal policy ever fully living under the same roof again maybe it s time to re think the true costs and benefits of operationally independent central banks Perhaps a long distance or weekend relationship is the answer Please note The U S Federal Reserve has been independent since 1951 although it is described as independent within government as opposed to independent of government and the European Central Bank was created as an independent institution in 1998 Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards as well as political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Ref 24533 130116 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture a conscious re coupling of monetary and fiscal Select Article URL Close Bonds Central banking Economics Europe Fiscal policy Fixed Income Interest rates Long termism Monetary policy UK Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Lesson from Germany the value of hybrid property Paradox for

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  • New risks, new rules | Thinking Aloud
    that they are not Mr Kaloo responded to these findings by saying that asset managers don t engage with companies sufficiently as an industry Engagement can be increased by carrying out governance checks and meeting privately with the company s board and management Many investors are also taking governance responsibility upon themselves Today more and more global investors have their own requirements for environmental social and governance ESG investing said Mr Murray In fixed income these requirements can be carried out in a manager s research and screening process when looking for assets In private equity strategies investors have become more selective in areas they don t want to be invested in said Mr McDonald These include ammunitions nuclear weapons and alcohol production There is now greater transparency around these issues Many investors today have become better informed than they ve been in the past which can help with day to day decision making An increasingly intermediated world While the world for portfolio managers has undoubtedly become much more complicated in that there are more interest groups from regulators to governments to civil society some things have not changed Portfolio managers are responsible for ensuring the companies they invest in are well run The governance process may be more complicated than it used to be in that more people want to influence it but it is still essential that companies ensure a good return on capital for investors 1 Liability driven investing Important Information Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counterparty or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated call some bonds allow the issuer to call a bond for redemption before it matures and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Ref 24533 161215 2 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture new risks new rules Select Article URL Close Alternatives Equities Fixed Income Global Related Articles Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Asian property seeking excitement without danger All LPs are equal but some are more equal than others Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Alternatives Equities Fixed Income Global Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION

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  • Investing responsibly | Thinking Aloud
    with the mentality of an owner rather than a trader and to intervene if there is a problem As shareholders in companies asset managers have an important role in holding management and boards accountable This is not simply about voting at Annual General Meetings AGM but having discussions on strategy pay risk management and governance As investors in property asset managers need to be responsible landlords On some buildings that might mean installing solar panels Or if we buy a block of flats we need to think of the tenants and provide an environment that they can enjoy Finally asset managers need to be open and transparent about the fees they charge The world around the fund management industry has changed Some have stuck their heads in the sand and are pretending nothing is happening Others are doing the right things but not doing a good job of saying so Either way change is coming and we need to embrace it Important Information Investments in property may carry additional risk of loss due to the nature and volatility of the underlying investments Real estate investments are relatively illiquid and the ability to vary investments in response to changes in economic and other conditions is limited Property values can be affected by a number of factors including inter alia economic climate property market conditions interest rates and regulation This article was originally published in the Sunday Telegraph on December 19 2015 Ref 23211 040116 2 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture investing responsibly Select Article URL Close Active management Behavioural finance Long termism Related Articles Market madness Einstein s theory of relativity and investing Picking a winner for the Big Game Growing opportunities in Asian private equity A conscious re coupling of monetary and fiscal policy Active management Behavioural finance Long termism Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or

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  • A lesson in clarity for Draghi | Thinking Aloud
    all a fine balancing act It is reasonable to say that no central banker wants to be accused of being held hostage by the market and any potential adverse reactions to policy decisions need to be carefully factored in The ultimate message that can be gathered from observing global policymakers there is a time to be vague and a time to be clear The former helps to prevent providing misleading signals to markets The latter should be used in the case of emergencies Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Alan Baker Ikon Images Corbis Ref 23211 081215 3 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture a lesson in clarity for draghi Select Article URL Close Central banking Economics Fixed Income Monetary policy Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Central banking Economics Fixed Income Monetary policy Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries markets or companies These statements are only predictions opinions or estimates made on a general basis and actual events or results may differ materially This information does not provide financial or investment advice and does not take into account the particular financial circumstances of

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