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  • The monetary and fiscal dance | Thinking Aloud
    below zero This may create additional stimulus when done properly If central bankers wanted to get even more creative they could target specific levels for the exchange rate This may stimulate inflation by encouraging the currency to depreciate and imported goods prices to rise If central bankers wanted to get even more creative they could target specific levels for the exchange rate The final possibility is that monetary policymakers may take a bigger look at something that is not a monetary tool at all fiscal policy In a speech at Jackson Hole last year ECB President Mario Draghi said It would be helpful for the overall stance of policy if fiscal policy could play a greater role alongside monetary policy Monetary policy and fiscal policy are the top tools that policymakers use to influence a country s economy Monetary policy is the management of interest rates and the total circulation of money supply Fiscal policy encompasses taxation and spending by government bodies Here in the U S the Fed governs monetary policy National fiscal policy is managed by the executive and legislative branches Right now it seems unlikely that politicians will hand over the reins of fiscal policy to central bankers as readily as they have let central banks steer monetary policy But when push comes to shove fiscal policy can be a very powerful tool to help stimulate an economy during a severe downturn Therefore it may not be unreasonable to say that fiscal and monetary policymakers might have to start working much more closely together Ref 23211 081215 2 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture the monetary and fiscal dance Select Article URL Close Central banking Economics Fiscal policy Global Monetary policy Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Creating value through effective stewardship Central banking Economics Fiscal policy Global Monetary policy Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/the-monetary-and-fiscal-dance (2016-04-26)
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  • U.S. monetary policy: Welcome to a new era | Thinking Aloud
    www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture u s monetary policy welcome to a new era Select Article URL Close Economics Global Interest rates North America Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Economics Global Interest rates North America Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries markets or companies These statements are only predictions opinions or estimates made on a general basis and actual events or results may differ materially This information does not provide financial or investment advice and does not take into account the particular financial circumstances of individual investors Before investing investors should seek their own professional advice Neither Aberdeen nor any of its employees associated group companies or agents has given any consideration to nor have they or any of them made any investigation of the investment objectives financial situation or particular need of the reader any specific person or group of persons Accordingly no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the reader any person or group of persons acting on any information opinion or estimate contained herein Aberdeen reserves the right to make changes and corrections to any information at any time without notice Third party websites provided by hyperlinks are completely beyond the control of AAM Accordingly AAM accepts no responsibility for the accuracy completeness and legality of the contents of such third party website or for any offers services and products contained therein AAM reserves the right

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/u.s.-monetary-policy-welcome-to-a-new-era (2016-04-26)
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  • Reasons to be cheerful, Part 1, 2, 3... | Thinking Aloud
    narrative one that highlights Japan s continued monetary stimulus allied to a credible restructuring story America as the continued source of technological innovation with a mobile workforce great demographics and cheap energy and a stronger Europe with recovery led by Italy Spain and Ireland All these are reasonable suggestions as to the sort of things that might entice investors with a more positive mindset There is undoubtedly much for investors to mull over both positive and negative as we assess the investment landscape for the coming year We ll see what comes But in the meantime here are some final reasons to be cheerful from the Bard of Upminster Too short to be haughty too nutty to be naughty Going on forty no electric shocks The juice of a carrot the smile of a parrot A little drop of claret anything that rocks Ian Dury Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Ref 24533 151215 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture reasons to be cheerful part 1 2 3 Select Article URL Close Asia inc Japan Commodities Economics Equities Europe Monetary policy North America Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Asian property seeking excitement without danger Lesson from Germany the value of hybrid property Paradox for emerging market positivity Asia inc Japan Commodities Economics Equities Europe Monetary policy North America Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/reasons-to-be-cheerful_-part-1_-2_-3 (2016-04-26)
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  • There’s something about Rajan | Thinking Aloud
    accounts Today the country is the brightest star within the BRICs Brazil Russia India and China constellation as data show that economic growth may be faster than China s government finances are in better health and the rupee has proven to be one of the more resilient emerging market currencies against a reinvigorated dollar That s why we think Indian country risk is massively mispriced Rupee denominated government bonds should not yield this much The risk premium for India is too high and should fall If we re right inflation is down for good and other low key reforms can bring benefits to the economy there s a potential for the term structure of Indian interest rates to fall Bond prices will rise as yields decline Lower borrowing costs will help companies grow which should raise earnings and benefit share prices The combination of economic improvement and rising asset prices will likely attract foreign portfolio investment and more capital inflows can strengthen the rupee Not much is certain going into 2016 but we feel that India may be headed in a positive direction from an economic standpoint Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counterparty or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Ref 24533 141215 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture theres something about rajan Select Article URL Close Asia ex Japan Bonds Central banking Developing Economics Emerging Markets Fixed Income Interest rates Monetary policy Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital EM corporate bonds what happened to the apocalypse Asian property seeking excitement without danger Paradox for emerging market positivity Asia ex Japan Bonds Central banking Developing Economics Emerging Markets Fixed Income Interest rates Monetary policy Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/theres-something-about-rajan (2016-04-26)
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  • The 2016 economic weather forecast | Thinking Aloud
    show that some professions are more realistic about their predictive powers than others weather forecasters apparently score better than doctors This is because regular feedback from users about forecast and scenario accuracy could also be performance enhancing Bearing these lessons in mind what will happen to the world economy in 2016 First central banks are likely to remain of the view eight years on from the financial crisis that the risk of doing too little outweighs the risk of doing too much In this environment interest rates should remain at exceptionally low levels and fresh stimulus measures are possible Second while an outright currency war is unlikely given that it would ultimately damage all a currency war of attrition is another matter Finally history could be rewritten Growth estimates are often revised as statistical agencies receive new information and these revisions can be sizeable Economic forecasts can perform poorly at times because it is not easy making informed guesses about where the world economy is going when you do not know exactly where the primary information has come from Now that is something to wonder Important Information Forecasts are offered as opinion and are not reflective of potential performance are not guaranteed and actual events or results may differ materially Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Ref 23211 071215 2 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture the 2016 economic weather forecast Select Article URL Close Economics Global Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Creating value through effective stewardship Central banks and broken promises Economics Global Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/the-2016-economic-weather-forecast (2016-04-26)
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  • Global business cycles: converging at last? | Thinking Aloud
    rest of the world risks catching a cold Previously that level of market influence had been reserved for the U S alone Following the latest slowdown in the emerging markets a raft of economic data in the U S UK and the Eurozone including activity surveys export growth job creation and retail spending growth have all shown signs of weakness Should these developments presage a decisive downturn in the developed markets business cycles central banks have little room to add stimulus because policy rates are already near zero This scenario would favor traditional safe haven assets such as government bonds gold the U S dollar and the yen But the prospect of further unconventional monetary policy stimulus may also provide a temporary boost to equity markets Whether or not 2016 will mark the year that turmoil in the emerging markets brings the long expansions in the U S and UK to an end and throw off the nascent improvement in the Eurozone s business cycle we can be sure that no recovery can continue forever Investors would do well to plan ahead and think about how they wish to be positioned heading into a potential downturn Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counterparty or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Ref 24533 081215 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture global business cycles converging at last Select Article URL Close Developed Economics Emerging Markets Europe Global North America Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital EM corporate bonds what happened to the apocalypse Lesson from Germany the value of hybrid property Paradox for emerging market positivity Developed Economics Emerging Markets Europe Global North America Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/global-business-cycles-converging-at-last (2016-04-26)
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  • Investors want more out of governance | Thinking Aloud
    their focus on risk management to increase over the next few years In this context asset managers have a unique role as responsible stewards in the companies in which they invest Of those polled 85 said asset managers should engage with the companies in which they invest client funds both at the pre investment due diligence phase and subsequently at regular intervals But 37 of respondents believed that asset managers were not adequately engaging with the companies in which they invested This means the asset management industry needs to better demonstrate that it is adding value in this important way In a rapidly changing world the need for well governed institutions has never been greater Good governance should not be an optional addition to a corporate strategy Rather it should be embedded in companies wider business and investment processes Because with the new risks that exist in the investment world today we may need some new rules 1 The survey was conducted online from early September to early October 2015 and consisted of quantitative and qualitative questions The sample group was 293 decision makers including pension fund trustees financial directors pension managers and consultants across the financial services industry and corporate and not for profits sectors Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Ref 23211 231115 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture investors want more out of governance Select Article URL Close Corporate governance Global Stewardship Related Articles Paradox for emerging market positivity Creating value through effective stewardship Words are wind in bond markets On Europe s home ground What is midstream energy Corporate governance Global Stewardship Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/investors-want-more-out-of-governance (2016-04-26)
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  • Mario in Wonderland | Thinking Aloud
    that the ECB has been headed in the right direction it is important to remember how difficult it is for a central bank to gain traction in a liquidity trap To boost activity today the central bank needs to promise to keep monetary policy very accommodative well into the future even as inflation picks up But because people believe the central bank will act responsibly and tighten policy as inflation starts to rise they do not believe the central bank s promise to keep policy easy in the first place The central bank s credibility for fighting inflation can work against it as its promise to be irresponsible is not credible In this topsy turvy world credible central banks are actually the least credible Imagination is the only weapon in a war against reality In the finale of Lewis Carroll s classic Alice s sister wakes her up from a dream and Alice leaves her sister on the riverbank to imagine all the curious happenings for herself In our case the curious happenings are playing out right in front of us and require no imagination However making sense of it is often a completely different matter And in order to effectively navigate our economies through such strange times central bankers and policymakers require an abundance of imagination For investors this means that second guessing policy decisions is becoming increasingly difficult Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counterparty or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Adapted from an article originally published on Financial Library on December 1 2015 Ref 24533 011215 4 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture mario in wonderland Select Article URL Close Central banking Developed Developing Economics Europe Global Interest rates Monetary policy Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Asian property seeking excitement without danger Lesson from Germany the value of hybrid property Paradox for emerging market positivity Central banking Developed Developing Economics Europe Global Interest rates Monetary policy Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking

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