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  • Guide to the Chinese yuan | Thinking Aloud
    Beijing central banks around the world When The yuan will join reserve currencies in October 2016 Bottom Line In the short term it s a matter of style over substance In the long run we think it s a positive step as part of a broader effort towards opening up China s financial markets Furthermore we believe that the Chinese will likely continue to keep the yuan relatively stable in the run up to its entry as a reserve currency in October 2016 Source International Monetary Fund September 10 2015 Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Credit Imaginechina Corbis Ref 16057 011215 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture guide to the chinese yuan Select Article URL Close Asia ex Japan Asia inc Japan Currencies Developing Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Asian property seeking excitement without danger Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Creating value through effective stewardship Asia ex Japan Asia inc Japan Currencies Developing Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries markets or companies These statements are only predictions opinions or estimates made on a general basis and actual events or results may differ materially This information does not provide financial or investment advice and does not take into account the particular financial circumstances of individual investors Before investing investors should seek

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/guide-to-the-chinese-yuan (2016-04-26)
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  • European Central Bank: all options on the table | Thinking Aloud
    the conventional interest rate lever by taking it further into negative territory without pushing households into holding excessive amounts of cash A deposit rate cut would also have the virtue of expanding the universe of assets eligible for purchase under the ECB s program which at present is limited to bonds with yields that are above the deposit rate Either way what is clear is the central banks cannot act in isolation the policies of one are transmitted to others via exchange rate movements The upshot is that we are cautious about the degree to which monetary policy in the U S and the Eurozone can diverge over the coming year Projections are offered as opinion and are not reflective of potential performance Projections are not guaranteed and actual events or results may differ materially Important Information Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counterparty or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Ref 24533 061115 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture european central bank all options on the table Select Article URL Close Central banking Developed Economics Europe Global Interest rates Monetary policy Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Lesson from Germany the value of hybrid property Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Central banking Developed Economics Europe Global Interest rates Monetary policy Related Links Learn more about Aberdeen Contact Us This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/european-central-bank-all-options-on-the-table (2016-04-26)
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  • The race to raise rates | Thinking Aloud
    of a cause for concern as the Eurozone sends 1 3 of its total exports to China As a result the BoE is unlikely to move without the Fed given its vulnerability to further weakness in China through its trade links with Europe What next There are clearly no historic or economic barriers to prevent the BoE from pre empting the Fed by raising rates But the BoE is not likely to because the UK is vulnerable to China s slowdown through its relationship with Europe Likewise currency appreciation from an early hike will not be welcomed given it would probably pull inflation even lower UK inflation is currently negative In the slow moving race to raise rates the one who crosses the line first will come down to how well the economies of the respective runners fare It s too early to call a winner but if the UK keeps on focusing on the wider world it will probably come in second place Important Information Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counterparty or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities and are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Credit Corbis This article was originally published in City A M newspaper on November 5 2015 Ref 24533 041115 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture the race to raise rates Select Article URL Close Central banking Economics Interest rates Monetary policy North America UK Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Central banking Economics Interest rates Monetary policy North America UK Related Links Learn more about Aberdeen Contact Us This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/the-race-to-raise-rates (2016-04-26)
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  • In Search of the Phillips Curve | Aberdeen | Thinking Aloud
    weakened the link between unemployment and inflation in many economies Alternatively the relationship between unemployment and inflation may be more complicated than the traditional Phillips curve relationship implies For example the shape of the curve may not be linear Instead it could be kinked In this situation declining rates of unemployment had little effect on inflation initially until the kink in the curve is reached and inflation takes off more rapidly This phenomenon may be tied to rigidities that do not allow nominal wages to fully adjust down during economic downturns The process works in reverse during recoveries as the unemployment rate begins to decline employers initially hold wages down to work off the accumulated stockpile of wage cuts Actual wages begin to rise only after this process is complete a point that the U S and the UK may reach very soon All of this means that the Phillips curve relationship is unlikely to be dead but it s more complicated than a straightforward representation of the relationship implies None of this makes the task of the Fed and other central banks any easier Outlook We currently expect the Fed to hike interest rates in December and for the Bank of England to follow suit in May next year But uncertainties about the trade off between unemployment and inflation not to mention the significant external headwinds coming from the slowdown in China and other emerging markets mean that these are low conviction calls on our part In no way would we be surprised if the Fed and the Bank of England decided that they would rather see the whites of inflation s eyes before raising interest rates Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks may be enhanced in emerging market countries Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counter party or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Ref 23211 281015 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture in search of the phillips curve Select Article URL Close Central banking Economics Global Interest rates Monetary policy Multi Asset Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Creating value through effective stewardship Central banking Economics Global

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/in-search-of-the-phillips-curve (2016-04-26)
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  • Baseline Views from the IMF | Aberdeen | Thinking Aloud
    in the EMs to derail recovery in the advanced economies particularly given the positive impulse to consumer spending and firms costs from lower energy prices and interest rates The IMF for example explores a scenario in which EM slowdown is combined with investor panic A sharp drop in investment would cut growth in the BRICS economies Brazil Russia India China and South Africa from 6 to 4 by 2020 At the same time growth in the advanced economies would be cut from 1 9 to 1 6 But policy risks do add an extra complexity We have seen hundreds of interest rate cuts and trillions of U S dollars worth of quantitative easing since 2008 Sometimes it can feel as though all we have to show for it more than seven years down the line is a fairly underwhelming recovery If this low level angst were to turn into a more fundamental questioning of the credibility of central banks in combination with an EM downturn and investor pullback our not bad 2016 forecast could turn into something more serious How likely is this to happen From where we stand now not very But natural risk aversion suggests that it is worth minimizing even a low likelihood event if its negative impact could be sizeable The IMF has a number of suggestions including advanced economies maintaining stimulus EMs making preparations for U S policy normalization and both undertaking infrastructure investment to boost current activity and future potential growth rates These may be sensible ideas but they are hardly eye catching Little wonder perhaps that the headline writers chose to focus on the risks ahead rather than the IMF s proposed solutions Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Ref 23211 261015 2 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture man bites dog at the imf Select Article URL Close Commodities Economics Interest rates North America Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Commodities Economics Interest rates North America Related Links Learn more about Aberdeen Contact Us This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/man-bites-dog-at-the-imf (2016-04-26)
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  • More marshmallows in the age of asset management | Thinking Aloud
    policymakers horizons are restricted to a short electoral cycle what prospect is there of a long term vision Yet governments could help if they had the courage to initiate strategic infrastructure projects and encourage long term investment in the private sector by tapering the capital gains tax for example as the Cox report suggested We need a consensus on long termism between governments and investors The urgent need for long term thinking in markets is where asset managers could play a key role Banks can no longer act as the sole motor of economic growth But asset managers are ideally placed to build bridges between current demands and the funding needs of long term projects benefiting capital markets and economic growth Last year Andy Haldane the Bank of England s Chief Economist said We may be about to enter the Age of Asset Management He s right to see asset managers as potentially the most effective opponents of the culture of short termism I m proud that Aberdeen has always operated using a long term strategy Our motto is buy and hold often for a decade or more We ve recently been granted a Wholly Foreign Owned Enterprise WFOE license by the government of China We welcome this opportunity to participate in the structural development of the world s second largest economy But as Hugh Young our Managing Director of Asian business said Our vow is to avoid short termism and focus on quality We may have earned a few marshmallows but we re not reaching out to grab them just yet Important Information This article was originally published in The Press Journal on October 18 2015 Credit the food passionates Corbis Ref 24533 211015 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture more marshmallows in the age of asset management Select Article URL Close Behavioural finance Long termism Politics Related Articles Market madness Einstein s theory of relativity and investing Emerging markets bonds sorting the wheat from the chaff Growing opportunities in Asian private equity A conscious re coupling of monetary and fiscal policy Behavioural finance Long termism Politics Related Links Learn more about Aberdeen Contact Us This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/more-marshmallows-in-the-age-of-asset-management (2016-04-26)
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  • Alternatives: more than just an alternative | Thinking aloud US | Thinking Aloud
    investor s overall portfolio Do you have the support you need to make effective investments While alternative investments can offer the potential for increased returns over time they can also increase operational and governance requirements It is important to select investment managers that can share some of this burden by regularly providing research insights and access to the full range of developing alternative investment opportunities The investment paradigm has begun to shift and investors have more opportunities to consider than ever before It is critical to take advantage of these changes by partnering with professional managers that offer a variety of solutions and exceptional support along the investment journey Important Information Alternative Investments can result in higher return potential but also higher loss potential Changes in economic conditions or other circumstances may adversely affect your investments Before you invest in alternative investments you should consider your overall financial situation how much money you have to invest your need for liquidity and your tolerance for risk This article was adapted from the recent Marketing Americas Media Summit held at Aberdeen s New York office on September 9 2015 Ref 24533 230915 4 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture alternatives more than just an alternative Select Article URL Close Alternatives Risk Related Articles Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Asian property seeking excitement without danger All LPs are equal but some are more equal than others Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Alternatives Risk Related Links Learn more about Aberdeen Contact Us This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/alternatives-more-than-just-an-alternative (2016-04-26)
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  • Looking out for icebergs in the global economy | Thinking aloud US | Thinking Aloud
    to return it to a normal size All anyone can say with certainty is that it is unlikely to be smooth sailing One of the greatest faults of the financial services industry is our tendency to believe in our own invincibility And that can apply as much to our own business as to the assets that we manage on behalf of others Despite high barriers to entry including regulation our industry is no less vulnerable to disruption than others Technology is opening up new distribution channels and Fintech Financial Technology is among the new buzzwords across the industry The Titanic sank not only because it hit an iceberg but because its makers believed it was unsinkable Our industry can show signs of worryingly similar complacency Neither navigating the open sea nor financial markets will ever be risk free but there are things we can do to understand those risks better develop better tools to manage them more efficiently and finally ensure adequate contingency plans when they turn into a reality That way when the cry goes up to man the lifeboats we have a better chance for surviving choppy seas Important Information International investing entails special risk considerations including currency fluctuations lower liquidity economic and political risks and differences in accounting methods This article was originally published in Institutional Investor on October 4 2015 Ref 23211 141015 1 Credit Bettmann CORBIS Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus the bigger picture looking out for icebergs in the global economy Select Article URL Close Active management Central banking Demographics Economics Monetary policy Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold ECB action kitchen sink or leaky tap for hedge funds Central banks and broken promises Active management Central banking Demographics Economics Monetary policy Related Links Learn more about Aberdeen Contact Us This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/the-bigger-picture/looking-out-for-icebergs-in-the-global-economy (2016-04-26)
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