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  • Who’s afraid of the big, bad (deflationary) wolf? | Thinking Aloud
    aim to avoid deflation But there s a limit to their powers and this is the most pernicious threat of deflation Central banks adjust the interest rate they set as a way of bringing inflation into line with where they want it to be But they can only cut rates so far we used to think that was to zero but turns out they can go below zero If the central bank is unable to cut rates as quickly as inflation is falling then inflation adjusted interest rates may actually increase a tightening in monetary conditions That means you can reach a point where inflation continues falling because the central bank has cut its interest rate as much as it can The economy can then slide into a self fulfilling spiral where the price of goods falls inflation adjusted interest rates increase the economy weakens prices fall further interest rates increase further and so on This explains why the ECB is so desperate to boost inflation today so the trap doesn t set in tomorrow Deflation is the wolf at Europe s door and the ECB is right to do everything it can to fight it off Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks Image credit Corbis Ref 23211 090316 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity whos afraid of the big bad deflationary wolf Select Article URL Close Bonds Central banking Debt Economics Europe Fixed Income Interest rates Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital EM corporate bonds what happened to the apocalypse Lesson from Germany the value of hybrid property Paradox for emerging market positivity Bonds Central banking Debt Economics Europe Fixed Income Interest rates Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/investment-clarity/whos-afraid-of-the-big_-bad-deflationary-wolf (2016-04-26)
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  • Indian budget: the sheen is off | Thinking Aloud
    in growth put to rest any big gestures in the budget That said we believe foreign direct investment remains healthy while competitive federalism the devolution of economic resource allocation and decision making to the states is producing results especially by improving the ease of doing business And so despite the slightly underwhelming budget we still like India from both a fixed income and equity market perspective Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Fixed income securities are subject to certain risks including but not limited to interest rate changes in interest rates may cause a decline in the market value of an investment credit changes in the financial condition of the issuer borrower counterparty or underlying collateral prepayment debt issuers may repay or refinance their loans or obligations earlier than anticipated and extension principal repayments may not occur as quickly as anticipated causing the expected maturity of a security to increase Equity stocks of small and mid cap companies carry greater risk and more volatility than equity stocks of larger more established companies Ref 23211 020316 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity indian budget the sheen is off Select Article URL Close Asia ex Japan Central banking Developing Emerging Markets Fiscal policy Monetary policy Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements EM corporate bonds what happened to the apocalypse Asian property seeking excitement without danger Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Asia ex Japan Central banking Developing Emerging Markets Fiscal policy Monetary policy Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/investment-clarity/indian-budget-the-sheen-is-off (2016-04-26)
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  • China can bounce back | Thinking Aloud
    and inefficient and the property market remains fragile While my trip provided comfort on the state of the economy my views on the stock market remain unchanged We have always been very cautious about investing in Chinese companies because so many are opaque and many have woeful corporate governance It can be much more sensible to expose yourself to China s growth by investing in companies which aren t based there but do business there From speaking to companies economists and analysts in China I ve come to the conclusion that the country is heading for a softer rather than harder landing You need to look beyond the stock market for the reasons why though China s consumer spending is still motoring Consumers have taken to internet shopping at a startling pace Barely 15 percent of the population had shopped on the internet a few years ago Now over 40 percent have Chinese shoppers spent nearly 8bn 5 7bn in the first 10 hours of the country s equivalent of Cyber Monday or Black Friday Chinese authorities might have lost some of their reputation for financial competency but they have 3 4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to soften the blow of a slowing economy Unlike many policymakers in the West those in Beijing still have plenty of tools at their disposal to avert economic disaster and to help the country to develop The announcement last week of the opening up of the bond market to long term international investors is a prime example and is a step in the right direction Ultimately China will shake off its current sniffles to continue to be a driver of global growth for decades to come Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging market countries This article originally appeared in The Sunday Telegraph on February 28 2016 Ref 23211 030316 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity china can bounce back Select Article URL Close Asia ex Japan Demographics Developing Economics Emerging Markets Labour Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements EM corporate bonds what happened to the apocalypse Asian property seeking excitement without danger Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Asia ex Japan Demographics Developing Economics Emerging Markets Labour Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/investment-clarity/china-can-bounce-back (2016-04-26)
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  • Big opportunities, smaller companies | Thinking Aloud
    fact we see more potential opportunity now than we have in a long while Some businesses that we know are trading at discounts to their intrinsic value under less fear driven market environments On a relative basis we also see the investment environment as favoring small caps for investors with a medium to long term horizon This stems from our conviction in a healthy set of small cap companies business models current valuations and what we see as a more stable domestic economy Such an economy is generally supportive of smaller companies which usually source less revenue from overseas In particular this type of environment leans well toward active management strategies that focus on the fundamentals searching for quality businesses with supportive balance sheets and pragmatic management teams John Holcroft Ikon Images Corbis Ref 23211 170216 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity big opportunities smaller companies Select Article URL Close Equities Global North America Related Articles Like the US the UK needs infrastructure capital Paradox for emerging market positivity Creating value through effective stewardship Taking some risk off the property table Tale of two West Coast cities Equities Global North America Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries markets or companies These statements are only predictions opinions or estimates made on a general basis and actual events or results may differ materially This information does not provide financial or investment advice and does not take into account the particular financial circumstances of individual investors Before investing investors should seek their own

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/investment-clarity/big-opportunities_-smaller-companies (2016-04-26)
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  • Uncommon thinking about commodities | Thinking Aloud
    with more options In the past there were only a few institutional quality managers to select from and they typically invested across all commodities and stages of development Now the current mining manager landscape gives investors the flexibility to pick from strategies that focus on specific stages of development whether it is in exploration development or production In addition certain newer managers specialize in specific underlying commodities While the current environment for commodities may look a bit gloomier than some would like the market dislocation right now may be a beneficial time to take advantage of strong long term growth areas with skilled private equity managers that have focused strategies based on their level of expertise Important Information There are special risks associated with an investment in commodities including market price fluctuations regulatory changes interest rate changes credit risk economic changes and the impact of adverse political or financial factors Jim Richardson CORBIS Ref 23211 170216 2 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity uncommon thinking about commodities Select Article URL Close Commodities Global Related Articles Paradox for emerging market positivity Creating value through effective stewardship Words are wind in bond markets On Europe s home ground What is midstream energy Commodities Global Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance of countries markets or companies These statements are only predictions opinions or estimates made on a general basis and actual events or results may differ materially This information does not provide financial or investment advice and does not take into account the particular financial circumstances of individual investors Before investing investors

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/investment-clarity/uncommon-thinking-about-commodities (2016-04-26)
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  • Click click boom: China’s e-commerce revolution | Thinking Aloud
    deflationary impact in the short term this should not be confused with weakening consumer demand On the contrary higher producer profit and lower prices are strong fundamental indicators of a sustainable reshaping of the supply chain Importantly for China this trend brings with it the creation of jobs Logistics is the most obviously impacted sector in this respect with growth of over 30 since 2014 6 Meanwhile financial services IT and residential services are all reporting double digit job growth figures Additionally these levels of growth don t take into account the tremendous benefit that e commerce is having on self employment In the absence of formal legal obligations to incorporate official employment data cannot capture this subset however this sector s growth is supported by overwhelming anecdotal evidence Aunty s Kitchen for example specializes in the delivery of home cooked meals by a virtual restaurant It provides a housewife a viable income stream from the comfort of her own kitchen China s consumer sector is undergoing a change for the better and evolving consumer behaviors are the driving force From home cooked meals and movie tickets to an insurance policy the Chinese proverb is being made a reality you truly can buy anything on the internet The result is a flourishing consumer sector driven by innovation enabled by e commerce Companies mentioned for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any security It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list Important Information Foreign securities are more volatile harder to price and less liquid than U S securities They are subject to different accounting and regulatory standards and political and economic risks These risks are enhanced in emerging markets countries Ref 23211 160216 2 1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch BofAML 2015 2 BofAML 2015 3 KPMG 2014 4 DMR 2015 5 National Bureau of Statistics of China 2015 6 Chinese government statistics 2015 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity click click boom chinas e commerce revolution Select Article URL Close Asia ex Japan Economics Emerging Markets Equities Related Articles Japan why faltering reforms shouldn t hide corporate achievements EM corporate bonds what happened to the apocalypse Paradox for emerging market positivity Fighting off China s cold Central banks and broken promises Asia ex Japan Economics Emerging Markets Equities Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN

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  • Global property: go with the Asian flow | Thinking Aloud
    and the long term preservation of capital remains a priority This means that prices will likely go up A different scenario is that these parties are here for the short term for instance to profit from currencies If these investors withdraw commercial property prices will likely go down and very large properties will become harder to sell as some of the larger buildings are often bought by Asian investors While commercial real estate attracts much higher total capital flows due to the large capital commitment required per transaction the residential sector has also benefited from significant flows from Asian investors We believe the top end of the London residential market is particularly exposed to this danger Concerns about a bubble in this segment are significant as investors from Asia the Middle East Russia and other regions have fueled demand by seeking refuge in exorbitantly expensive properties in London Essentially Asian investors are using their residential investments as a kind of call option They pay a deposit of 10 15 on new build projects If the market remains strong they keep the investment and pay the remaining balance But if the market worsens they have only lost 10 We believe that knowing all of this investors in London s property market should be wary After all flight capital can often be a matter of easy come easy go Important Information Investments in property may carry additional risk of loss due to the nature and volatility of the underlying investments Real estate investments are relatively illiquid and the ability to vary investments in response to changes in economic and other conditions is limited Property values can be affected by a number of factors including inter alia economic climate property market conditions interest rates and regulation Ref 24533 110216 1 Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity global property go with the asian flow Select Article URL Close Global Property Related Articles Lesson from Germany the value of hybrid property Paradox for emerging market positivity Creating value through effective stewardship Taking some risk off the property table Tale of two West Coast cities Global Property Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/investment-clarity/global-property-go-with-the-asian-flow (2016-04-26)
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  • Solutions revolution | Thinking Aloud
    vehicles are gaining huge popularity Thirdly institutional investors and intermediaries are increasingly seeking strategic partnerships with asset managers to help them do one or several of the following reach their investment goals navigate complexity gain specialist advice receive bespoke solutions and or outsource investment and non investment responsibilities Lastly tech savvy investors want digital access to financial information and guidance and the ability to invest online giving them greater choice transparency and convenience In summary to survive in today s asset management industry having a Solutions capability is a pre requisite In order to be successful in Solutions you need a robust multi asset capability that includes alternatives the ability to design and manage to outcome oriented goals and to deliver bespoke solution to be a viable outsourcing partner for institutions and intermediaries and to give investors access via a digital platform And if you really want to be a firm that stays ahead of Heraclitus inevitable change you need to recognize when cultural and organizational shifts are needed For many right now that means embracing Solutions Smart beta refers to investment strategies A smart beta strategy passively follows an index to take advantage of perceived systematic biases or market inefficiencies Ref 23211 160216 1 CORBIS Social media Download share or print this page Copy link Email link Print this page Share on twitter Share on LinkedIn Share on Google Share on Facebook Copy URL http www aberdeen asset ca en thinkingaloudus investment clarity solutions revolution Select Article URL Close Multi Asset Related Articles Helicopters won t save us Hunting high and low It s déjà vu oil over again In search of the Phillips curve The Seven Deadly Sins of Multi Asset Investing Multi Asset Related Links Contact Us Learn more about Aberdeen This Content Component encountered an error Send us feedback First Name Last Name Email Address Comments Thinking aloud Internal Links About Thinking aloud Privacy and Cookies Policy Accessibility Help Keep in touch twitter LinkedIn google facebook More about Aberdeen Asset About Aberdeen Asset Management Aberdeen Asset Management Copyright 2015 IMPORTANT INFORMATION PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS The views and opinions expressed are provided for general information only and do not constitute specific tax legal or investment advice to or recommendations for any person We suggest that you consult your financial or tax advisor accountant or attorney with regard to your specific situation The details contained here are for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments mentioned herein Aberdeen Asset Management AAM does not warrant the accuracy adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein and expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information and materials Any research or analysis used in the preparation of the information has been procured by Aberdeen for its own use and may have been acted on for its own purpose Some of the information may contain projections or other forward looking statements

    Original URL path: http://www.aberdeen-asset.ca/en/thinkingaloudus/investment-clarity/solutions-revolution (2016-04-26)
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